Governments in Western Europe, Southeast Asia and the Middle East have projects in launch mode or in the planning stages.
Even in the U.S.–which like the U.K. has long resisted the urge to require citizens to bear ID cards–federal officials are pushing a de facto national ID. ID card projects around the world include efforts to collect biometric data, such as fingerprints, on citizens and permanent residents. The identifiers get stored on a microprocessor chip embedded in a digital card and on a central database.
Although officials often try to promote the technology as bringing government closer to the people, at bottom they see it as one of the most effective ways to stem the flow of illegal immigrants, crack down on ID fraud and, for many countries, reduce the threat of terrorism. Among the large national ID projects on the drawing board in the West, France and the U.K. are tying their cards to planned rollouts of electronic passports. And although critics of the plans, led by privacy advocates and fiscal conservatives, have been gaining strength of late, officials are not likely to back down, especially after the recent terrorist attacks in London.
A vast market Reliable estimates of the ID card tech market are difficult to come by. U.S.-based equity research firm Morgan Keegan last year estimated governments worldwide spent $4.8 billion in 2003 to identify and track citizens and residents, mainly through the use of low-tech cards and associated databases and network infrastructure. That is expected to grow to $10.7 billion by 2007, fueled largely by the higher costs for chip-based, or “smart,” cards and biometrics, including the biometric databases and readers.
“National ID has big growth, and that’s purely being driven by China.” Anoop Ubhey, analyst, Frost & Sullivan Smart card suppliers project they will ship 60 million government ID cards worldwide this year, up by a third from 2004. The estimate includes some health cards that patients use to file their insurance claims.
U.S.-based printer and PC giant Hewlett-Packard has seized on such projections to help it tout a “National Identity System” offering, which it announced in late May. HP, eager to reduce its dependence on sales of ink cartridges and the fiercely competitive PC business, has cast itself in the role of systems integrator to governments around the world. It hopes to sell officials on complete “identity management systems,” including biometric verification, smart cards and networking software. For this it has enlisted various IT “partners,” including Microsoft. “It’s a crying need from those governments,” says Jim Ganthier, worldwide marketing director for HP’s Defense, Intelligence and Public Safety unit.
U.S.-based research firm Frost & Sullivan isn’t quite as bullish on the market. It estimates governments worldwide issued just 12.4 million electronic ID cards to citizens and permanent residents last year. It predicts that will increase to 450 million cards a year in 2009. But much of that growth will come from one massive project. “National ID has big growth, and that’s purely being driven by China,” says Anoop Ubhey, an analyst for Frost & Sullivan. “We certainly don’t think the whole project will be completed by 2008.” And Beijing is keeping card costs low and restricting almost the entire $6 billion-plus project to domestic vendors.